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Guinea's Simandou project has helped offset weaker iron ore supply from other regions, according to a Macquarie note cited in the report. Lower prices, shipping costs and higher diesel prices have put pressure on producers elsewhere.
The bank said annual exports could reach around 28 million tonnes if the October shipment pace is maintained and weather remains favourable. It forecast global iron ore supply growth of about 14 million tonnes in 2026, alongside a 4.5% decline in Chinese domestic production.
The report also points to weaker prices and demand. Iron ore was about 24% below its May peak and had fallen below $90 a tonne in the preceding month, increasing pressure on higher-cost supply.