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According to the news website ” Madan Nameh ” , engineer Meysam Esmail Beigi, an activist in the field of steel production and trading, in an interview with the news website, referring to the preparation of an analytical article entitled “Steel in Fire” regarding the complex situation of the steel market, explained parts of this article and said: “In recent months, the steel market has faced one of its most complex and unprecedented periods; a period in which severe fluctuations, reduced transparency, disruptions in the supply chain, and changes in the behavior of market players have turned decision-making into a multi-layered challenge. In such an environment, many market actors have either moved towards passivity or make decisions that are more influenced by emotions and momentary news than by analysis.” Regarding the purpose of preparing this report, he added: “In recent months, what was most noticeable to me was the lack of a coherent and reliable view in market analysis.” Many actors, especially in the commercial sector, had either limited their activities or their decisions had become merely reactive and short-term. This led me to conclude that the main problem in the market was not simply price fluctuations, but the lack of a proper understanding of what was happening. Maysam Esmail Beigi continued: “For this reason, I developed the report with the aim of providing an analytical framework, rather than focusing on short-term forecasts; a framework that would help market actors better understand the current situation and make decisions based on it.” Referring to the most important change that has occurred in the steel market, he stated: “The most important change is the change in the “nature of the market game.” Under normal conditions, the steel market has relatively clear and analyzable patterns; but in crisis conditions, these patterns are disrupted and the market enters an environment in which uncertainty becomes a permanent feature. This activist in the field of steel production and trading stated: In such an environment, complete information is not available, rumors are faster than reality, and emotional behaviors replace rational decisions. For this reason, competitive advantage is transferred from “access to resources” to “quality of analysis and speed of decision-making.” Regarding the first phase of the article “Steel in Fire,” which focused on the structural pathology of the market, he said: “In the first phase of the article, an attempt was made to identify and analyze the most important bottlenecks that become active in crisis situations. Among these, I can mention cases such as instability in the supply chain and reduced reliability of product delivery, liquidity shock and increased risk in collecting receivables, the formation of a shadow market and the loss of price authority, the erosion of trust in business relationships, as well as hidden costs that gradually erode profit margins. Engineer Ismail Beigi stated: “The important point is that these challenges should not be examined separately, but rather their connection to each other should be shown because, in reality, these risks act in a chain and intensify each other’s effects.”
This steel activist, describing the current conditions of the steel market, considered the purely defensive view of companies to be wrong and said: “One of the common mistakes in crisis situations is that companies are simply looking to reduce risk and survive. While the history of the markets has shown that crises create great opportunities along with threats. In the second phase of the report, I have focused on exactly this issue; how these conditions can be used to strengthen their position in the market. In fact, changing the approach from “maintaining the status quo” to “using instability for growth” is one of the key points of this report. Regarding the biggest mistake that market activists make in these conditions, he added: “The biggest mistake is “passivity or emotional decision-making.” Some activists completely give up on the market and wait for the situation to become clearer, while this period is the time for opportunities to emerge. On the other hand, some enter into transactions without analysis and solely based on rumors. Both approaches are dangerous. In such circumstances, having an analytical framework and adhering to it is the most important factor in preventing costly errors. He offered a practical recommendation for managers in this field, noting: If we were to give a practical recommendation, it would be to move decision-making from a reactive mode to a data-driven and scenario-driven process. That is, instead of waiting for events to happen, design different scenarios in advance and have a plan for each one. This will speed up decision-making at critical moments and minimize the risk of rhetoric. Engineer Ismail Beigi concluded by saying: In times of crisis, competitive advantage shifts from “being big” to “being agile and making the right decisions.” Companies that can have more accurate information, make faster decisions, and act more flexibly will win this period, even if they are smaller than their competitors in terms of resources. This discussion is only part of the content of the article “Steel in the Fire.” In the full version of this article, an attempt has been made to provide an in-depth and practical view of the current market situation, as well as to outline practical paths to overcome this situation and even exploit it. To read the full version of the article and review the details of the analyses and strategies, please refer to the file below.