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“Madan Nameh” News Agency: Keyvan Jafari Tehrani – Mining expert and international metals market analyst – stated: On Friday, October 30th, gold prices dropped by 3.6% and silver by about 6%, with gold entering the $3,800 range, causing concerns for both foreign and domestic investors.
He explained the factors behind the decline in gold prices: One influential factor was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in September. Decisions on raising interest rates in October were inconclusive, and it remains uncertain what will be decided in November; however, the probability of a rate increase in November is seen as twice as likely, and many also expect an interest rate hike in December. Nevertheless, interest rate increases are unlikely to happen in two consecutive months. Therefore, if the increase occurs in November, it will not be repeated in December, and if it does not happen in November, it will likely be delayed until December.
This senior international metals market analyst added: In the case of another rate hike, it is even possible that the increase in December will be 0.5%, which is twice the amount considered in September. Under such conditions and considering other influencing factors, gold prices might fall even to $3,500.
Jafari Tehrani identified rising oil prices resulting from Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine as other affecting market factors. He said: Many market participants were optimistic about upcoming developments, but the continuation of these tensions impacts commodity prices, and the U.S. midterm elections are not without effect. Although the Federal Reserve is independent of the U.S. presidency, election outcomes and their political consequences can affect commodity prices, and copper is no exception to this rule.
Regarding silver, he noted: The price relationship between gold and copper, as well as gold and silver, is direct. However, the approximately 6% drop in silver to $48 on Friday was significant and indicates that this metal is less stable than it was last year or in the early months of this year.
This mineral metals expert emphasized: When the situation of a precious metal or commodity weakens due to various reasons, including supply and demand conditions, market optimism toward it also diminishes. This was why in recent weeks we observed increased optimism toward zinc, which rose into the $3,800 range. Previously, zinc prices consistently ranged between $3,300 and $3,400, whereas silver is now in unfavorable conditions and investors show less interest in it.
Jafari Tehrani, referring to the influence of upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and U.S. midterm election results on the global gold market, said: To make more accurate predictions, it is necessary to await these developments. However, even if gold prices decline in the last two months of the calendar year, it is probable that early in 2027 an upward trend will begin, pushing prices beyond $3,800 and up to $4,000. Yet, predicting prices above $4,000 at present, given current international and global conditions, is not feasible and market developments should be monitored.
Reduction in Chilean Copper Production as a Factor Strengthening Prices
Continuing, he pointed to the impact of Federal Reserve decisions and market developments on global copper prices: Based on news published by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, ongoing operational problems in Chilean mines and reduced copper production there could lead to strengthening copper prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced on November 2nd that according to the latest outlook from Chile’s government commission Cochilco, copper production in Chile is forecast to decline by 8.4% in 2026 to 4.94 million tons; a figure 330,000 tons lower compared to August’s forecast.
This international metals market analyst continued: According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange report, Chilean copper production fell by 8.5% in the first nine months compared to the same period last year, reaching 3.63 million tons. The mines Escondida, Spence, and Codelco collectively accounted for 77% of the net production decline in the country. Additionally, lower ore grades, maintenance, and operational disruptions are major causes of the production drop.
In conclusion, Jafari Tehrani referred to Cochilco’s estimates, saying: According to this report, to achieve the annual production forecast, Chilean copper production needs to average around 434,000 tons per month from October to December – a figure 7.6% higher than the monthly average production between January and September. It is also forecast that copper production in Chile will improve by about 3% in 2027, reaching 5.08 million tons. Overall, the release of this news on November 2nd could strengthen global copper prices and brighten the outlook for this metal.