Story views: 3
News Base «Madan Name»: The Chilean government copper commission (Cochilco) in its latest report downgraded this country’s copper production estimate for the current year by 8.4% to 4.94 million tons and forecasted that production in 2027 would improve mildly by only 3% to 5.08 million tons; a figure that still remains considerably below the country’s previous records and capacities.
Grade decline in mining giants; main cause of production fall
According to Cochilco data, Chile’s copper production in the quarter ending in September has dropped to the lowest seasonal level in two decades. The focus of this decline has been the large complexes managed by the companies “Codelco” and “BHP Group,” which alone accounted for 77% of the net production decline. Analysts attribute the primary reason for this protracted trend to a sharp drop in ore grade, complex geological challenges, and frequent operational stoppages.
Minimal safety margin in the global copper market
Despite the slow recovery trend, Chile alongside the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to contribute a 37% share of the estimated 3.4% growth in global copper supply next year. However, Cochilco has warned that the refined cathode copper market will remain extremely tight; with a supply surplus next year equal to only 0.8% of the total estimated consumption, representing a fragile safety margin against operational risks or a surge in electric vehicle industry demand.
